Rajasthan Royals have become the first team to qualify for the playoffs of IPL 2024, following Delhi Capitals' win against Lucknow Super Giants on Friday. With Kolkata Knight Riders also through, two playoff spots remain up for grabs. Here's a detailed analysis of each team's chances of making it to the top four.
Teams in Contention
Chennai Super Kings (CSK): CSK have 14 points and a net run rate of 0.528. A win against Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) on Saturday will guarantee them a playoff spot. If they lose by a margin of less than 18 runs (chasing 200), their net run rate will remain above RCB's. If they lose by a larger margin, they will need to hope that Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) lose both their remaining games and finish behind CSK on run rate, in which case both CSK and RCB will qualify.
Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB): RCB have 12 points and a net run rate of 0.387. If SRH get at least one more point - either through a washout or a win - then RCB's only chance will be to finish ahead of CSK on the points table. That means beating them by at least 18 runs, if they score 200. If they're chasing 200, they will need to win in about 18.1 overs (depending on the runs scored off the winning shot). If their margin of victory is smaller, they can qualify only if SRH lose both their games, by any margin, and stay on 14. A defeat or a washout against CSK will knock RCB out of the tournament.
Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH): SRH have 14 points and a net run rate of 0.406. They need only one more point to ensure qualification. If they lose both matches, then they will have to rely on CSK beating RCB, assuming SRH keep their net run rate above that of Delhi Capitals (DC). If SRH lose both matches and RCB beat CSK, then they can only qualify if CSK's net run rate drops below that of SRH. If they lose each of their games by a run, CSK will have to lose by 42 runs for their net run rate to slip below that of SRH. However, SRH could also be in contention for a top-two finish if they win one, or both, of their remaining matches.
Eliminated Teams
Delhi Capitals (DC): DC have 14 points, but their net run rate of -0.377 means they have almost no chance of finishing among the top four. For them to make the playoffs, they'll have to hope that CSK beat RCB and finish on 16, and SRH lose their last two matches by big margins so that their net run rate slips below that of DC. Given the difference in their net run rates currently, that translates into a combined margin of defeat of 194 runs for SRH in their two matches (if they are chasing 201 each time). Barring miracles, that means DC's season has come to an end.
Lucknow Super Giants (LSG): LSG can still finish on 14 points, but even if they score 200 in their final match against Mumbai Indians and beat them by 100 runs, their net run rate will only improve to -0.351. Long story short, like DC, LSG are out of the race too, barring several miraculous results.
Remaining Fixtures
Saturday, May 15
Chennai Super Kings vs Royal Challengers Bangalore (Bengaluru)
Sunday, May 16
Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Gujarat Titans (Hyderabad)
Monday, May 17
Rajasthan Royals vs Punjab Kings (Jaipur)
Tuesday, May 18
Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings (Hyderabad)
Wednesday, May 19
Lucknow Super Giants vs Mumbai Indians (Mumbai)
Thursday, May 20
Rajasthan Royals vs Kolkata Knight Riders (Jaipur)
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