Trump’s Hush Money Trial to Become Centerpiece of His 2024 Presidential Campaign

The Trial

Former President Trump’s courtroom campaign is set to take center stage in his bid for the White House after a New York judge set an April 15 start date for a trial over an alleged hush money scheme. Trump and his allies have for the past year sought to turn outrage over his legal troubles into enthusiasm among his supporters, describing the myriad investigations and charges over his conduct as “election interference” from Democrats worried about beating him at the ballot box. But now that the GOP primary is over and Trump is actually set to go on trial, he’ll face a fresh set of hurdles in competing with President Biden’s campaign. Barring further delay, Trump will be in a courtroom in Manhattan four days a week beginning April 15, with the trial expected to last several weeks.

The Impact

The lost time on the trail could be critical for Trump, whose lead over Biden in the polls has narrowed in recent weeks ahead of what both campaigns expect will be a closely fought general election. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showed Biden narrowing Trump’s lead in six out of seven battleground states likely to decide November’s election, including in Wisconsin, where Biden pulled ahead by 1 percentage point, and in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where the two candidates are even. While Trump has only traveled to Ohio in recent weeks for a rally ahead of the state’s competitive Senate primary, Biden has visited every major battleground state in the month of March.

Trump’s Strategy

Trump is also at a major cash disadvantage compared to the Biden campaign. Trump’s operation brought in roughly $20 million in February, while the Biden campaign raised about $53 million. Biden’s campaign also boasts a major advantage in cash on hand, while Trump continues to put huge sums toward paying his legal costs. The former president is no stranger to using the courthouse and legal troubles as a springboard for his 2024 campaign. His lead in the polls in the Republican primary steadily grew throughout 2023, even as he faced fresh indictments in New York City, Florida, Washington, D.C., and Georgia. Trump successfully fundraised off of his mug shot at the Fulton County Courthouse in Georgia, and his various court appearances earned him significant media coverage, including across networks that have largely stopped airing his campaign speeches.

Poll	Biden	Trump
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	49%	48%
CNN	51%	46%
Fox News	48%	43%

Conclusion

Trump and his allies are counting on the fact that his legal troubles will solidify his support among the Republican base, and even win over more moderate voters who view the charges against Trump as politically motivated. The former president, asked Monday if he worried a conviction in New York City could tank his reelection bid, suggested it could make him more popular “because the people know it’s a scam.” But there is reason for skepticism that Trump’s courtroom campaign will have the positive effect the former president and his allies are expecting. A Politico/Ipsos poll conducted March 8-10 found 50 percent of respondents believe Trump is guilty of the alleged crimes in the Manhattan case, and 36 percent of independents said a conviction in the case would make them less likely to support Trump. Exit polling from Super Tuesday earlier this month found 37 percent of GOP primary voters in Virginia and 31 percent of primary voters in North Carolina said Trump would not be fit to be president if he’s convicted of a crime.
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